Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9b90c6fb7631bd995fe11a448284fbba2e9e63a736a5cd5060b6b4baa128b43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 1c | 994.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 621.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 77c | 340.79$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 318.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 76c | 288.76$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 234.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 225.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 26c | 206.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 19c | 199.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 189.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 20c | 179.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 19c | 175.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 159.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 24c | 124.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed No | 80c | 117.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 25c | 116.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 14c | 98.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…61d3backed Yes | 26c | 87.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 85.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 18c | 73.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 70.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 80c | 69.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 66.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 76c | 48.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 41.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 40.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df0…3938backed Yes | 29c | 37.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 70c | 35.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 78c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 79c | 23.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 77c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 13.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 78c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.