TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes52c418.58$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.634,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No47c397.67$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.912,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c375.59$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No10c329.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No19c298.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c217.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.848,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc174…9d97backed Yes47c208.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.741435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc004…7eabbacked No15c200.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c200.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.232,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No37c195.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1813728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No60c177.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2351762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed No21c168.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.842157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes49c157.34$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.375,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes50c139.06$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7321436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes28c118.85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.281,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d8…555fbacked Yes51c116.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.642343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed No9c116.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.057639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes67c108.33$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes36c101.85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.181,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes53c97.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.071,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes53c97.01$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c81.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No48c80.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.661,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes53c79.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.531542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No68c72.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0960851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes49c72.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No66c71.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0910154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fb…b7afbacked No64c68.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.947460.8%45 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39f2…b712backed No68c68.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.93850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c65.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes68c60.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.262733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes31c59.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9114544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c59.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes50c58.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.240739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes43c56.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No71c56.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8434250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No19c52.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1914158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No49c51.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.969462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7968…615abacked No76c50.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.133167.7%21 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+47.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No61c49.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2517555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes51c47.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.253661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7453…aee6backed Yes53c46.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.913551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No49c44.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.522,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9547…1bf5backed No73c43.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.683441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No69c42.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2342049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.256265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No71c39.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7816764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes43c37.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6542544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes35c37.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.316421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No52c35.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes60c35.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.097847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes39c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.359142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No58c34.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.122,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes55c34.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.826553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No49c34.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8311652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes53c34.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0611044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No47c33.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8712363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No67c32.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7393734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes39c32.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5821235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd782…a950backed Yes40c30.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.562661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No70c30.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.659959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.916065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes39c29.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes66c29.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9511436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c28.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.349,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa048…0250backed Yes40c28.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes39c28.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed34…2309backed Yes69c27.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.618336.1%30 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No50c26.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4911925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed No67c26.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4321142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked No70c24.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No45c24.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.171,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No49c24.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No63c23.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No51c23.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed No67c19.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x799c…3bedbacked Yes54c19.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.782330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No77c19.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5519547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No56c18.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.547546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a79…c875backed No65c16.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.882748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No70c15.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9126861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9611…f9aabacked Yes77c14.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.411566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.