Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02026f0340d7771239e11c78f43c86fa3d0c614cc41f965a91fc8d2d6361fe78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 535.42$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 69c | 452.1$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 80c | 420$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 5c | 380.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 350.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 78c | 326.47$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 305.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 31c | 214.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 35c | 209.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 168.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 165.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 161.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 155.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 70c | 152.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 22c | 146.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 64c | 137.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 27c | 124.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed No | 64c | 103.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 101.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 66c | 101.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 97.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked No | 66c | 96.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 94.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 94.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 64c | 78.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 77.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 22c | 76.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 33c | 75.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 74.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed No | 66c | 72.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 72.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 69.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 72c | 66.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 36c | 53.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…dc43backed Yes | 23c | 49.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 64c | 47.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 31c | 47.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 47.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 40c | 47.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 44.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…d3cbbacked No | 60c | 43.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 67c | 42.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 42.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…2f3cbacked No | 60c | 42.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 74c | 39.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 63c | 39.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 31c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…833fbacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…501bbacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 70c | 34.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 75c | 34.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 77c | 34.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 33.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…917abacked Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 29.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed No | 67c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 72c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 65c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 72c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 67c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 79c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.