Tennis · resolved market
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9bf9f47e03b3db27e455a213001f23ba20f23134470a18c02887f08bf67f33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giorgio Tabaccoof Giorgio Tabacco, Raffaele Ciurnelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Raffaele Ciurnelli | 58c | 219.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Giorgio Tabacco | 75c | 217.66$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Raffaele Ciurnelli | 32c | 167.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Giorgio Tabacco | 16c | 162.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Giorgio Tabacco | 39c | 103.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Giorgio Tabacco | 45c | 103.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Raffaele Ciurnelli | 60c | 98.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Raffaele Ciurnelli | 33c | 84.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Giorgio Tabacco | 44c | 83.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Giorgio Tabacco | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Raffaele Ciurnelli | 25c | 67.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Raffaele Ciurnelli | 65c | 61.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Raffaele Ciurnelli | 42c | 59.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Giorgio Tabacco | 39c | 59.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Giorgio Tabacco | 62c | 56.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Giorgio Tabacco | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Raffaele Ciurnelli | 60c | 32.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed Giorgio Tabacco | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Giorgio Tabacco | 63c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Giorgio Tabacco | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff90…253cbacked Giorgio Tabacco | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raffaele Ciurnelli | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Giorgio Tabacco | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Giorgio Tabacco | 64c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Raffaele Ciurnelli | 68c | 18.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.