Fifa International · resolved market
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Armenia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9c33e7af152e8c6d5f5b5462e121855716cfbc55e07e27437300a27ec512229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 5,468$4,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.55 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 5,392$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.6 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.66 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 24c | 1,181$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 1,004$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 21c | 799.95$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 777.91$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 32c | 440.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 32c | 168$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 160.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…84ddbacked Yes | 30c | 139.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed No | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 69c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republic of Ireland vs. Armenia end in a draw?this page
- Will Armenia win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-10-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.