Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9defa025b00d41308ccf1c93a0e1305bf1ca8eb321a01591ead306cc46c41f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,586$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 482.47$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 24c | 384.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 24c | 255.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 31c | 205.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 176.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 172$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 73c | 162.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 30c | 155.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 135.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 27c | 107.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 89.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 83.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 66.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 30c | 59.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 51.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 51.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 39.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 38.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 40c | 28.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 77c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.