Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0893b44353836337f778b0065844aa3ac1598ca8036d054570ad238dd02bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 25c | 2,004$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 888.21$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 871.3$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 62c | 504.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 126.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 35c | 110.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 107.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 34c | 89.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 71c | 81.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 65c | 75.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 28c | 63.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 58.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 52.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 51.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 51.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 50.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 47.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 32c | 37.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 73c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.