Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa012de7764776a79cd57ebb31b47584ade66bf07b1889ee1353ea606fb88582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 5c | 666.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 17c | 346.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 315.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 273.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 11c | 271.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 176.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 75c | 147.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 146.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 139.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 46c | 104.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 20c | 96.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 16c | 88.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 84.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 20c | 72.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 48c | 71.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 59.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 54.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 67c | 54.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 43c | 49.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 60c | 47.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 40c | 46.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 39.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 36.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 59c | 36.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 66c | 32.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 32.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 61c | 32.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 35c | 30.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 41c | 30.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…d60fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 73c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 61c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 23.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 69c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 74c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.