TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$256,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,358 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes1c97,760$1,345 inLost-$1,345.27620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes8c4,770$391 inLost-$390.8758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes10c4,532$459 inLost-$459.4387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes8c4,250$347 inLost-$347.277156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes3c3,331$107 inLost-$107.276518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes4c3,203$122 inLost-$122.12407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes10c3,149$315 inLost-$315137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes3c2,754$81 inLost-$80.691483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes2c2,231$52 inLost-$52786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes19c2,037$380 inLost-$379.81478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c2,000$16 inLost-$164754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost-$30060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes2c1,484$30 inLost-$30.21043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes2c1,414$30 inLost-$29.66994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee82…c1a0backed Yes9c1,233$111 inLost-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7d…28ecbacked Yes1c1,157$15 inLost-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe6c…c5b8backed Yes2c924.07$18 inLost-$18.421915.8%3 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick2cpaid+1,039%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes2c733.33$16 inLost-$16387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+403.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes10c460.1$46 inLost-$46.01185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes10c332.61$33 inLost-$33.1311330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb644…2925backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes11c171.58$19 inLost-$19.043625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd558…a218backed Yes7c161$12 inLost-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b3…e903backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ef…04b0backed No80c62.5$50 inWon+$12.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.