TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$184,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77eb…9d5cbacked Yes41c8,509$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,488.691656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked No78c8,376$6,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.063946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3379…f0b4backed Yes27c7,711$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes5c3,702$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.06786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes4c3,461$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes7c3,416$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.42620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes5c3,025$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3428021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c2,920$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4428113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c2,821$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No74c2,709$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.8687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8230…a577backed Yes6c2,369$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404425%11 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+241.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes3c2,339$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.344533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes17c2,073$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.3858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aea…10c9backed Yes6c1,801$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94c…4484backed No65c1,550$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes12c1,327$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9211328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc086…b1afbacked Yes17c1,158$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.37520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c1,042$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.642126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc40…56a3backed No70c929.12$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.341241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53be…5040backed No66c907.1$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.831643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes32c846.4$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.093625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked No62c819.99$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.42763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1f6…a293backed No77c799.99$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes4c754.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.621483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1332…2b23backed Yes28c726.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x207c…52fabacked Yes5c667.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-88.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes10c655.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.28478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c580.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.971,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes5c556.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6e…e39dbacked No76c515.7$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.71872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes29c500$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-91.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed Yes35c490$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.53930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No79c436.47$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.665964.4%38 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No64c419.74$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.951931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf440…b938backed Yes10c419.39$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes20c418.28$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.482360.9%14 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7bc7…3976backed No55c399.98$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…5481backed Yes3c385.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes4c350.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No56c339.64$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.443148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes49c296.14$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.112744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes6c291.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.14994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d7…9bbebacked Yes15c282.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2554…bb52backed Yes15c266.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf194…feaabacked No40c259.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes69c232.45$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.095954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed No54c228.88$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.236518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa641…0866backed Yes16c219.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes23c216.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2fa9…5f77backed No59c210.18$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.995168.6%35 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f95…01a8backed Yes49c209.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.71643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dae…a48ebacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…6feabacked No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703171%22 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…bb7ebacked Yes57c174.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes9c172.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0612012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes39c164.13$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4313117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes20c163.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+55.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9574…2e6ebacked Yes8c162.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11160%0 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fff…7500backed No60c154.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.651154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe552…b192backed Yes14c149.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d1…26dcbacked Yes24c142.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5490…1806backed Yes8c130$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes15c122.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.085614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…45b8backed Yes16c121.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes48c115.93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.179927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc887…869bbacked No55c110$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68ed…fbddbacked Yes45c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52560%15 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9840…2065backed Yes14c105.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed Yes34c105$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.72343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb462…fc89backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes27c99.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.291421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce7b…7677backed Yes19c94.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.984617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3410067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c91.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes68c81.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.362045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5b…dca3backed Yes28c77.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa4…84b6backed No39c70.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b66…95c0backed Yes54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed No78c54.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.136446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed No51c52.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.884623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde75…10d6backed No70c42.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x227d…1a26backed Yes32c40.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139063.3%57 W · 33 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1184…a836backed No75c40.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.011060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc0…35dcbacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ab…2f10backed Yes45c39.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd94…1a13backed Yes62c36.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95aa…269cbacked Yes28c36.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…7816backed Yes62c35.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2590…8fa2backed No40c33.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.241323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe61…e9c2backed No47c32.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.332479.2%19 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8378…0090backed Yes65c30.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d0…7d9abacked No73c30.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.02540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d75…b263backed No76c26.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.282871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5239…b328backed No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.481241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4577…6560backed No54c24.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.