TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes3c64,393$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.17620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes23c11,748$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.9387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes6c9,274$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.156518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e74…6d51backed Yes3c8,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200130%0 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes4c6,839$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.41031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No73c5,369$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.6158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No72c4,820$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.917163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes2c3,811$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30cb…b901backed No66c3,208$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.951662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9760%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd8…d4e7backed Yes3c2,547$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c2,008$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.82270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5182…0120backed No61c2,000$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7901573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes2c1,864$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.818521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes2c1,665$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes2c1,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.69812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-69.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes2c1,519$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9574…2e6ebacked Yes7c1,497$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.69160%0 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes8c1,200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.62126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes20c1,150$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.997112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes2c1,025$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.26786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes2c975.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.191043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes2c973.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.47994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ab…2f10backed No64c909.06$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes3c800$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62360.9%14 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa772…05efbacked No68c750$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes4c737.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+403.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c675.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes38c606.89$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4111210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed No65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes25c551.59$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed No74c536.91$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.63930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ef…04b0backed No73c520.21$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.26580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb78…99c2backed Yes2c515.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes20c499.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No59c422.57$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.623148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Yes30c399.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9960%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c359.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.351,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes3c351.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed Yes16c337$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.922343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes33c334.24$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9513117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e87…9a3fbacked Yes13c310$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a16…7439backed Yes40c305.04$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.021520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Yes31c299.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94110%0 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No71c282.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2721651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x815d…8648backed Yes31c270$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaecd…27abbacked No62c242$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.962171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2af6…e0c7backed No68c240.82$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b4…b520backed No68c214.2$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.095100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed Yes39c213.43$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9f…c1a4backed Yes18c205.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes30c178.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2111330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cfa…9bb4backed Yes34c175.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.762646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes32c170$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.43339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes11c167.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f95…01a8backed Yes42c165$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.31643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a31…7908backed No70c163.69$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9d…f43dbacked No63c154.46$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes39c144.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.283625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes32c133.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87d…8cafbacked No55c127.38$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.382759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick30cpaid-76.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaabb…0ac6backed No64c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64470.5%31 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xef39…423bbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3218162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes37c96.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.688467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d7…9bbebacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed No65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bb…cb45backed No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.022552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed Yes35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1275…1517backed No66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.62552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd43…0699backed No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.12853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eae…ef73backed No73c87.4$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed No69c83.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.84533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7983…c138backed Yes29c80.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fcb…0521backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.22646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1f…3537backed No68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.22657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1184…a836backed No64c78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No70c71.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.510067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f31…cb7cbacked Yes22c70.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ba…d082backed Yes36c66.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…2f4dbacked No69c65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+46.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes23c63.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb815…423abacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd143…83ecbacked Yes41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510221.6%22 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…7816backed No66c60.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.491656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes31c54.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.75478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes29c51.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.570%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa644…e875backed Yes41c48.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba22…4333backed Yes32c46.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5784…0830backed No61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.985347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc0…35dcbacked No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc698…9a4cbacked Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf76b…55eabacked No71c39.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6335…9d81backed No65c39.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.