Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 May 18-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58b7d31ff25dcd1e7557431985026c80d097f214b4e595a9c4315bc3eaeb4c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328d…c041backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 13c | 10,403$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.71 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 78c | 5,654$4,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.69 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 38c | 5,272$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 80c | 4,394$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.04 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 80c | 3,778$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.81 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…6767backed Yes | 63c | 1,450$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c1…384ebacked No | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed No | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 29c | 935.59$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.67 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 23c | 851.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 806.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked No | 32c | 601.17$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed No | 14c | 459.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 4c | 455.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 12c | 280.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 5c | 221.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 28c | 170.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 64c | 156.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 67c | 150.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…dca3backed No | 20c | 117.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa650…8ca9backed No | 21c | 116.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…e0c7backed No | 21c | 115.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…b26dbacked No | 23c | 108.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 74c | 99.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…0e14backed No | 25c | 72.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked Yes | 76c | 68.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed Yes | 76c | 68.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…0eecbacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…0830backed No | 28c | 60.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…4333backed Yes | 78c | 56.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…b8a0backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…ba25backed Yes | 79c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 May 18-24?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.