Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa132c2cee7c269cea40ddaf937b6be32c1603333894ce8a7446c59a1e84faf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cambridge United FCof Birmingham City FC, Cambridge United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cambridge United FC | 27c | 10,066$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,317.12 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Birmingham City FC | 76c | 9,809$7,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,496.21 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Birmingham City FC | 25c | 543.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Cambridge United FC | 73c | 319$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Birmingham City FC | 27c | 314$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…046bbacked Cambridge United FC | 74c | 135.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…2e5fbacked Birmingham City FC | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Cambridge United FC | 80c | 54.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Birmingham City FC | 77c | 52.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cambridge United FC | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Cambridge United FC | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…ecb3backed Cambridge United FC | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Birmingham City FC | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Cambridge United FC | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…576bbacked Cambridge United FC | 77c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b3…a7b1backed Cambridge United FC | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)this page
- Cambridge United FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cambridge United FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cambridge United FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cambridge United FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cambridge United FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.