Australian A League · resolved market
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2abf04fe0c399797b4b6df1c0efada8896ed5d208d87f363ed7ee8809341f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 5,519$4,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.54 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 3,609$2,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.85 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 2,687$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.33 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 2,250$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 28c | 1,072$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…7435backed Yes | 24c | 932.71$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…26e5backed Yes | 24c | 531.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 262.35$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 30c | 234.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 22c | 198.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Yes | 29c | 189.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Yes | 26c | 161.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 154.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…529ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Yes | 28c | 95.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…576ebacked Yes | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Yes | 27c | 56.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 25c | 52.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 24c | 49.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…f3ffbacked Yes | 28c | 42.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-01?Yes won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.