Australian A League · resolved market
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2049ab9c2714ebe1da6323c343d57a39f4d64cfece7d2c53c8a00708534c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 9,257$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.44 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,770 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 47c | 3,366$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.22 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 53c | 3,199$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.4 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 50c | 3,046$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 51c | 2,696$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.9 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Yes | 53c | 2,100$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 2,019$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.82 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,886$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Yes | 44c | 1,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,119$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,044$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 51c | 906$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.47 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 53c | 814.86$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.39 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 621.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked No | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…9bedbacked No | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 54c | 370$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed No | 55c | 306.82$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed Yes | 15c | 306.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 50c | 215.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 53c | 215.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 211.96$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 52c | 204.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 50c | 200.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +200.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…8000backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 47c | 166$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…da63backed Yes | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 17c | 118.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 115.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Yes | 11c | 112.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed No | 50c | 111.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 51c | 106.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…bcc6backed Yes | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…308abacked Yes | 23c | 104.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b54…b910backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa66…ec4abacked Yes | 54c | 74.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Yes | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 55c | 26.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 65c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-01?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-01?Yes won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.