Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Stefanini (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2eb5883bc5bcbbf44a57f62fce8df1f7a8fc4ffb6f2172c0620f17ba6a0e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stefaniniof Stefanini, Aksu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Stefanini | 60c | 6,730$4,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.83 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Aksu | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Aksu | 40c | 1,214$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.43 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Aksu | 40c | 1,214$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.43 | 117 | 60.7%71 W · 46 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aksu | 40c | 525.17$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Aksu | 36c | 435.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aksu | 37c | 392$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Aksu | 40c | 376.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Stefanini | 66c | 300.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Stefanini | 61c | 141$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Aksu | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Aksu | 40c | 121.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Aksu | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Aksu | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Aksu | 45c | 100.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Aksu | 40c | 92.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e4…9c55backed Stefanini | 69c | 82.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Aksu | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Aksu | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Stefanini | 55c | 62.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Stefanini | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 220 | 50.9%112 W · 108 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Aksu | 40c | 48.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Aksu | 40c | 48.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Stefanini | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…2e2cbacked Stefanini | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Stefanini | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 220 | 59.5%131 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Stefanini (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5)this page
- US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia StefaniniLucrezia Stefanini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.