Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66912195cd57e79c4b8e01608293f65ad5126d34deaa5ae030f6f0468847e4d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucrezia Stefaniniof Ayla Aksu, Lucrezia Stefanini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 73c | 9,186$6,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.26 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Ayla Aksu | 6c | 6,734$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.35 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 6,509$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.55 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…ab8cbacked Ayla Aksu | 19c | 5,650$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Ayla Aksu | 5c | 3,842$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 78c | 3,785$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.51 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 2,896$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.2 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Ayla Aksu | 26c | 2,393$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ayla Aksu | 7c | 1,528$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Ayla Aksu | 20c | 1,218$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 1,100$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Ayla Aksu | 21c | 1,018$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.69 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ayla Aksu | 23c | 731.73$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 656.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Ayla Aksu | 21c | 583$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 469.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 434$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 530 | 43%228 W · 302 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Ayla Aksu | 6c | 399.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 299.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 78c | 294.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 220$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…9713backed Ayla Aksu | 23c | 191.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Ayla Aksu | 13c | 152.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 149.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ayla Aksu | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 99.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 97.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 87.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Ayla Aksu | 21c | 87.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…f108backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 527 | 39.3%207 W · 320 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 75c | 61.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 232 | 56.5%131 W · 101 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 45.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 78c | 42.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 186 | 66.7%124 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 165 | 88.5%146 W · 19 L | +37.7wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 27.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 76c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 77c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 79c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…e949backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefaninithis page
- Set Handicap: Stefanini (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5)Stefanini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.