TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lucrezia Stefaniniof Ayla Aksu, Lucrezia Stefanini
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b11…5375backed Lucrezia Stefanini73c9,186$6,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.2617247.7%82 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Ayla Aksu6c6,734$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.353,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lucrezia Stefanini80c6,509$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.558,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f5…ab8cbacked Ayla Aksu19c5,650$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Ayla Aksu5c3,842$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.119737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Lucrezia Stefanini78c3,785$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.514,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Ayla Aksu21c2,896$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.22,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Ayla Aksu26c2,393$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.764,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ayla Aksu7c1,528$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.934,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Ayla Aksu20c1,218$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.61,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c1,100$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.654,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ayla Aksu21c1,018$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.693,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Ayla Aksu23c731.73$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.736,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Ayla Aksu21c656.33$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8310249%50 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Ayla Aksu21c583$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.431,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Ayla Aksu21c469.35$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.563,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Lucrezia Stefanini79c434$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1453043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Ayla Aksu6c399.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.881,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Ayla Aksu21c299.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.992,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Lucrezia Stefanini78c294.59$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5935164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Lucrezia Stefanini80c220$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.591,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c199.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4252847%248 W · 280 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd16f…9713backed Ayla Aksu23c191.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459557.9%55 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18d8…da3bbacked Ayla Aksu13c152.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027448.5%133 W · 141 L+24.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c149.95$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4947058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lucrezia Stefanini77c124$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5224051.3%123 W · 117 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ayla Aksu14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Ayla Aksu21c99.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9993945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lucrezia Stefanini79c97.48$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.477,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Ayla Aksu21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Lucrezia Stefanini80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1884968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Ayla Aksu21c87.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.472250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…f409backed Ayla Aksu21c87.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.473122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Lucrezia Stefanini78c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.352739.3%207 W · 320 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Lucrezia Stefanini75c61.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3523256.5%131 W · 101 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7555347.6%263 W · 290 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Lucrezia Stefanini79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.574547.4%353 W · 392 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Lucrezia Stefanini80c45.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3582958.1%482 W · 347 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Lucrezia Stefanini78c42.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3118666.7%124 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Lucrezia Stefanini80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810451%53 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cce…4b52backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9816588.5%146 W · 19 L+37.7wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+33%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked Lucrezia Stefanini80c27.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4621147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Lucrezia Stefanini76c25.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.081,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Lucrezia Stefanini77c24.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6511056.4%62 W · 48 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Lucrezia Stefanini80c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.669545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c20.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.321,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Lucrezia Stefanini77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Lucrezia Stefanini79c14.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.21,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef30…e949backed Lucrezia Stefanini78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.864156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.