MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa50f7fe17b7ecf5720e24ad8b1425fa21d3063a994a7f2eb448102635748563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d2…81e0backed Blue Jays | 61c | 53,553$32,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,402.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Guardians | 40c | 23,636$9,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,181.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians | 41c | 12,409$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,381.36 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Guardians | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays | 13c | 9,895$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.63 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Guardians | 39c | 9,613$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,835.75 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 31c | 3,685$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,531.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Guardians | 8c | 2,789$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.46 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians | 40c | 2,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians | 42c | 1,480$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.57 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.02 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Blue Jays | 76c | 1,108$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Guardians | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Guardians | 39c | 700$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Blue Jays | 58c | 660.95$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.35 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians | 42c | 600$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Guardians | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.92 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 44c | 469.29$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.59 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Blue Jays | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Blue Jays | 56c | 438.53$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.58 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Guardians | 40c | 395$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Guardians | 39c | 356$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.16 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Guardians | 40c | 351$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 44c | 245.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Blue Jays | 57c | 232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Guardians | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Guardians | 41c | 180$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Blue Jays | 54c | 166.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Blue Jays | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Blue Jays | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Guardians | 39c | 89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Guardians | 50c | 65.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…ae49backed Blue Jays | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 29c | 53.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Blue Jays | 56c | 51.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Guardians | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Blue Jays | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Blue Jays | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Guardians | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Guardians | 45c | 37.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Blue Jays | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Guardians | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Blue Jays | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.