TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,514 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Over25c2,842$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.1375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Under75c2,700$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67512861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over11c2,136$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2314542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af3…fbe3backed Over27c1,866$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.811729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf425…be71backed Over26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under75c733.33$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3338055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88d…f708backed Over26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8133340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Over26c245$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under74c167$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4249647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over26c135.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1314642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb16…d583backed Over26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Over26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba0…e885backed Over27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Over27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over27c96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.927332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under73c79.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4163645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over25c73.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over26c67.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5362452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x874f…b0a5backed Over26c53.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under74c28.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x267d…3852backed Under75c28.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x870c…b899backed Under75c24.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under74c18.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.912157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under74c17.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.59658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under75c16.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2212064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under75c15.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.830647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.