Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5b5aa9729be1ee49220dfe784baac0ffbb0435cfe1f871d3e59a6dd046b4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,514 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 25c | 2,842$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.13 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 75c | 2,700$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 11c | 2,136$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 27c | 1,866$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 75c | 733.33$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 26c | 245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 26c | 135.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb16…d583backed Over | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…e885backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 73c | 79.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 73.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 26c | 67.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…b0a5backed Over | 26c | 53.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 74c | 28.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…3852backed Under | 75c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b899backed Under | 75c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 74c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 74c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 75c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 75c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.