F1 · resolved market
Will Red Bull have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa66ffc29fd79da1e6391b27772b89e752961f72f5ef253665bfb4c219064e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1db7…44c1backed Yes | 2c | 900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Yes | 7c | 688$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked Yes | 2c | 680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fe…c497backed Yes | 5c | 680$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed Yes | 10c | 467.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 7c | 212.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 206.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…3f62backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed Yes | 21c | 120.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 54c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Bull have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?this page
- Will Aston Martin have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will Haas have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?Yes won
- Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.