F1 · resolved market
Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ef25f797e7c94439f54b4c7a62063476cda44f6c1ac2fca039e4fc90eab6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked No | 1c | 15,900$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.30per pick | 17cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 25c | 901.32$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…d9e8backed No | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…9151backed No | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 25c | 819.31$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 14c | 571.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…166cbacked Yes | 77c | 570.14$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…569abacked Yes | 75c | 479.15$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed No | 25c | 399.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 346.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 75c | 322.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 75c | 274.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked Yes | 73c | 186.59$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…ab98backed No | 26c | 186.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab10…db53backed No | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 24c | 113.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…aef5backed Yes | 74c | 106$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 99.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed No | 20c | 51.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…b781backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…da3ebacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…8990backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5b…162cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Yes | 74c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?this page
- Will Aston Martin have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will Haas have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
- Will Red Bull have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.