Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa979df03f8f69c2642fb267a8d54e294313a220ac98b94d3b5bcc77358af97b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 327.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 254.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 48c | 208.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 55c | 155.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 71c | 117.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 85.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked Yes | 18c | 65.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 61.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…fd96backed Yes | 35c | 56.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 42c | 53.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 52.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 80c | 52.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 47.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 69c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…7b9bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 36c | 29.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 79c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 25.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 60c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 79c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…c8f7backed Yes | 61c | 19.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 73c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.