Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa9f0fc479ac96d1bd81f31201fdd11850f0f7bc0fa0a952bc82d2ad525890cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 904.39$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.96 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 34c | 610$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 40c | 500.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 36c | 422.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 63c | 182.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…510ebacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 61c | 101.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 39c | 97.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 60c | 81.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 42c | 63.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…3618backed Over | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.