Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa1cd230e1a906abce986b0e4ac62eda645c7d7472d3f66e2d6cbbafe804b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 337.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 295.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 79c | 252.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 250.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 49c | 247.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 230.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 211.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 210.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 12c | 209.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 61c | 201.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 172.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 158.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 58c | 145.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…67bfbacked No | 78c | 141.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 123.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 100.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 97.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 95.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 83.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 27c | 79.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 73.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 27c | 72.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 45c | 71.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 71.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 70.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 64.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 61.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 57.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 55c | 55.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 23c | 53.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…9ab2backed Yes | 67c | 44.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 41.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 36.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 42c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 71c | 33.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 69c | 30.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 38c | 29.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 36c | 29.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or below on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.