Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04fa6c0ef2a3ce72bb5cc9e44b3cad8bab7466f13177eb141d5063ddfe24c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 57c | 701.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 38c | 214.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 208.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 75c | 203.57$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 68c | 203.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 37c | 177.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…d3ebbacked Yes | 38c | 143.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 136.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 124$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 123.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 40c | 120.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 116.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 34c | 107.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 24c | 104.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 103.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 37c | 101.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 98.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 87.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 42c | 77.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 72.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 59.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 34c | 57.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 57.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 26c | 56.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 32c | 53.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 51.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 46c | 50.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 79c | 48.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 55c | 47.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 45.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 44.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 57c | 40.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 39.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 69c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 36.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 64c | 33.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 79c | 27.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 53c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 23.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 51c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed No | 68c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed No | 67c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 70c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 73c | 16.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 76c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or below on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.