Asian League · resolved market
Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa533dc7c430ddaac171891e45cf0b8bd8f220f7bc9eeb62d960879e6f8385c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 3,783$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.89 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 2,402$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,759$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 356.24$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 354.3$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 32c | 315.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 19c | 315.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…9753backed No | 68c | 269.34$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 224.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 9c | 223.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 71c | 199.93$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 189.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 55c | 174.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 73c | 124.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 29c | 123.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 116.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 72c | 98.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 17c | 94.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 63.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 57.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 57.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 55.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 53.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…b1fbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 45.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 37.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 73c | 29.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-13?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.