Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac54e1b55981d1d6d9d487f3ea76fdb5273620551a9ea92adb0c715b8da29e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 620.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 25c | 365.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 65c | 308.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 212.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 12c | 210.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 205.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 202.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 165.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 57c | 103$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 94.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 84.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 75.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 71.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 71.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 21c | 60.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 57.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 55.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 51.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 48.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 46.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 46.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 41.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 40.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 56c | 38.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 54c | 37.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 35.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 30.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 56c | 28.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 24.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 21.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 58c | 21.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 21.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 51c | 19.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.