MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfacf135359f33edd38352ddef10005218c09fd7584459e9236c855020a7742ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 44c | 11,871$5,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,223.35 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 56c | 10,886$6,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,789.96 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 3,023$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.12 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 2,000$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.66 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 57c | 1,114$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.06 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 43c | 994.88$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 44c | 750$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 656.5$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.72 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 59c | 589.72$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.79 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 57c | 512.74$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 43c | 482.9$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 44c | 409.88$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…7ef9backed Under | 40c | 399.72$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 374.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 43c | 336.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 59c | 294.85$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 59c | 294.85$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 33c | 292.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…23edbacked Over | 57c | 259.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7a…acb5backed Under | 44c | 257.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Under | 49c | 246.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 57c | 170.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 57c | 146.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 141.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 115.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 63.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 44c | 61.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 44c | 49.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 49.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 56c | 42.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 40.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 43c | 39.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 46c | 39.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Under | 35c | 38.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -17.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 52c | 33.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 42c | 32.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 61c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 56c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 66c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 43c | 26.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 67c | 25.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 60c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ee…c29fbacked Over | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 65c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 68c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.