MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef6e80fe9e220c8c9a15aa2b114126a9d21e897de0c3092693e70b75d2d9615f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 13,038$7,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,301.45 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 10,033$4,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.57 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 6,643$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.1 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 3,331$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.57 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 3,205$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 3,121$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.55 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 2,040$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.71 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 1,485$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.19 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 1,482$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 1,457$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.09 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 1,313$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs | 20c | 1,150$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 1,070$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 1,050$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.93 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,031$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.48 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 999.96$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 990.36$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 545.75$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.35 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 410.09$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 329.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 324.71$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.84 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 313.16$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 311.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 266.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 253.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 222.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 218$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 217.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 208.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 195.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 186.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 184.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 169.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…02e8backed Chicago Cubs | 23c | 164.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 125.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 123.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 123$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 119.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 112.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 107.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 107.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 101.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 98.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 96.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 68.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 55.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 55.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 54.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 52.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 51.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 49.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 49.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 46.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 42.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 40.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 38.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -17.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…999bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 36.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 33.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 31.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…2f29backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 20.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.