Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae680e725c68b985a3de5d922389db31f27a5b72dc9a065e42837f9161a2a77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 243.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 148.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 141.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 23c | 91.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 53.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…6a1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…95bebacked Yes | 43c | 44.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 40.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 38.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 36.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 61c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.