Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaedc18ca8023c8d1f7e8d9287703d0f5dd57613df834ceccb9832d725214709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 15c | 654.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 13c | 498.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 12c | 403.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 269.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 240.72$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 21c | 214.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 190.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 150.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 149.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 149.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 12c | 139.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 80c | 124.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 122.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 26c | 97.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 20c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 33c | 88.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 71.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 21c | 70.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 69.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 59.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 17c | 59.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 73c | 51.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 51.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 36c | 51.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 72c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 28c | 41.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 39.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 37.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 63c | 32.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 70c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…c4f1backed No | 78c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a4…be51backed No | 74c | 13.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 80c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.