Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3383e2c1448dce081df923384f8cdb4231c0cbb5e3eaf0f9ad91212088f07ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 30c | 1,750$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.94 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 1,098$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…535cbacked Yes | 2c | 552.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 497.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 40c | 445.51$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 26c | 380.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 301.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 300.4$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 287.34$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 282.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 239.84$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 195$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 29c | 175.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 56c | 174.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 48c | 157.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 152.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 65c | 152.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 66c | 150.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 56c | 141.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 20c | 123.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 121.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 80c | 114.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 96.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 56c | 87.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 36c | 83.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 18c | 70.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 42c | 67.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 64.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 63.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 61.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 59.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 58.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 43c | 53.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 77c | 52.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 79c | 50.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 49.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 48.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 48.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 46.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 44.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 44.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 42.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 60c | 42.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 41.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 42c | 39.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 61c | 37.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 31c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 59c | 35.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 34.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 31.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 31.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 79c | 31.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 30.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 29.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 59c | 27.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 63c | 18.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 80c | 16.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.