Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccb0e1db4fd803d4212f9d74d5e635f68a2a75bd0b3f11e254141d90a7f3f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 894.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 59c | 474.56$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.61 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 38c | 436.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.18 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 12c | 361.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 29c | 310.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 256.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 244.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 40c | 244$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 239.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 221.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 23c | 192.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 182.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 181.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 179.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 52c | 169.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 39c | 161.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 158.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 156.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 58c | 153.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 149.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 135$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 123.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 122.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 116.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 63c | 102.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 101.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 93.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 40c | 92.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 55c | 90.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 83.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 56c | 83.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 43c | 80.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 48c | 79.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 41c | 77.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 76.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 40c | 75.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 74.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 38c | 73.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 19c | 73.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 67.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 30c | 66.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 64c | 61.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 61.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 54.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 53.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 50c | 52.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 52.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 51.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 48.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 48.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…f561backed Yes | 41c | 47.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 60c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 45.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 45.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 54c | 42.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 42.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 40.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 40.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 46c | 39.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6124…181abacked No | 56c | 33.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 33.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…9d90backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 66c | 32.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 32.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 55c | 31.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 41c | 29.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 29.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 79c | 26.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 25.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…b41abacked No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.