Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaff7d4894b1e2f4e7b3c1c5d6a3a52068a02f5333288b8f039d8a4d523f05e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 78c | 437.59$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.51 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 338.65$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 20c | 187.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 28c | 163.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 145.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 138.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 136.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 135.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 18c | 125.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 121.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 117.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 110.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 77c | 74.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 17c | 71.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 28c | 71.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 64c | 58.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 70c | 55.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 66c | 52.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 52.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 55c | 51.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 79c | 49.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 33c | 49.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 62c | 43.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 41.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 38.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 29c | 37.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 37.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 30.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…b747backed Yes | 67c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 60c | 29.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 50c | 28.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 39c | 27.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 79c | 27.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…ca1bbacked No | 52c | 26.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 24.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 54c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 58c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 78c | 18.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.