Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8ec3acbf7eef4f0d8c70641e4032462c99733bb9636e99b0227d29ccfc58ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 1,381$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.55 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 719.33$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 549.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 525.72$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 4c | 500.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 423.64$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 13c | 342.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 78c | 324.86$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 266.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 21c | 231.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 49c | 194.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 63c | 122.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 96.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 47c | 96.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 22c | 91.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 37c | 85.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 80c | 78.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 72.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 64.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 80c | 50.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 62c | 50.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 53c | 44.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 57c | 40.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes | 29c | 38.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 72c | 34.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 67c | 33.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 32.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 28.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 27.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 27.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…62b7backed No | 54c | 26.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 80c | 24.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 48c | 23.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 61c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 76c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 79c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.