Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45aa3b521756787e68f396526b6235a2b91a12e1a8f07252b8b5304dddfd21c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 328.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 302.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 297.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 290.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 69c | 276.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 45c | 270.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 36c | 258.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 13c | 178.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 171.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 138.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 137.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 135.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 116.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 86.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Yes | 35c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 71.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 72c | 66.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 61.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb62b…09f5backed No | 80c | 56.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 54.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 37c | 49.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 38c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 48.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3a1abacked Yes | 39c | 48.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 45.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 43.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 30.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 28.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…33c7backed Yes | 39c | 25.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…7ec3backed No | 64c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…7a9ebacked No | 63c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 71c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…dd96backed No | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 68c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 78c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.