Premier League · resolved market
Will Villa vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb05cbea7795c6cf5ad9168d1af02cf0a99c7090b9c6defeb09c9cc0765e4d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 71c | 3,982$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.38 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed Yes | 29c | 3,622$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 43c | 2,308$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.46 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,770$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.94 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,364$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.61 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 70c | 1,004$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed No | 80c | 950.86$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 23c | 778.25$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.25 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Yes | 71c | 563.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 77c | 522.91$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.41 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9866…6e9fbacked Yes | 29c | 327.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 22c | 315.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.81 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 68c | 282.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 70c | 257.28$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 76c | 221.95$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.68 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 201.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 32c | 158.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 29c | 101.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 75c | 93.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7801…422bbacked Yes | 64c | 85.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 68c | 84.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…b344backed Yes | 31c | 69.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…4888backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 76c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…633bbacked Yes | 25c | 52.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 32c | 49.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…96b2backed Yes | 32c | 40.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…6632backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 72cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…9146backed Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…67f3backed No | 78c | 26.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villa vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23?No won
- Will Villa win on 2024-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.