MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb223dd7244b2c2aff7ab8d99fce13bdcf039572f9e73b3a2b76a6fecc651217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Diamondbacks, Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf980…6528backed Phillies | 56c | 19,451$10,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,881.17 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks | 43c | 14,979$6,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,487.76 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Phillies | 27c | 3,434$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.99 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…ab5fbacked Diamondbacks | 77c | 3,188$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Diamondbacks | 43c | 2,584$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.4 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Diamondbacks | 42c | 2,568$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.45 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Phillies | 53c | 2,536$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.86 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 69c | 2,499$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.68 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Phillies | 69c | 2,133$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.35 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Diamondbacks | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 1,709$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.23 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 44c | 1,462$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.96 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Phillies | 59c | 1,201$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.75 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Phillies | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Phillies | 20c | 568.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Phillies | 59c | 503.95$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.62 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 429.02$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.61 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 368$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.67 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Diamondbacks | 62c | 359.27$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.52 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Phillies | 59c | 329.33$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Diamondbacks | 44c | 308$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Diamondbacks | 63c | 296.15$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diamondbacks | 44c | 254.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…7443backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 218.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Phillies | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Phillies | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Diamondbacks | 45c | 155.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Phillies | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Phillies | 57c | 136$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…fb23backed Phillies | 60c | 132.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Diamondbacks | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…6eb5backed Phillies | 59c | 90.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Diamondbacks | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Phillies | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 55c | 51.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Phillies | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…5f68backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Diamondbacks | 72c | 34.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Diamondbacks | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Phillies | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.