MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4513b151d979ef081cff012efc76adb30366b0658c23007651efdcaf85379e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 10c | 455.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 303.34$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79e2…3ba7backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 63c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 25.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 48c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 59c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.