MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb5c81fdfd69dc468c5ae13aa6eda2d793fc57b10b36e46caac4b594bb65754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 76c | 3,708$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 3,023$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 504.07$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af9…9931backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 346.23$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…0a0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 269.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 268$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 6c | 216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…9372backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…e26ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 187.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 138.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 138.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 105.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 89.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 87.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 59.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 52.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 49.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 44.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 42.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 28.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.