MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x377555901a0a238eb963a178a1c32e34f5f18349d1bbaa6a38f62e643389a515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 5,263$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.94 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 4,169$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 4,167$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 1,797$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.67 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 1,573$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.81 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 1,561$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 1,403$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 770.22$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 602.79$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.87 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 468$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 280.18$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 216.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 7c | 202$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 145.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 137$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 85.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 77.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 72.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 44.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 43.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.