Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4ee9bdccc60e59c3f43a5f8629d429db692b4c138e37104dd0cc52e1bba5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,070$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 40c | 408.57$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.57 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 304.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 261.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 246.05$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 62c | 228$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 210.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 210.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 55c | 140.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 114.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 53c | 107.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 102.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 100.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 40c | 93.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 73.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 70.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 68c | 70.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 54c | 70.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 61.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 53.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 49.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 48.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 30c | 44.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 71c | 41.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 55c | 37.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 36.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 29.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 48c | 22.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.