South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb8f4369b49f6726ba2ca5ee75393745e2a438e22d3462b882d454f43409fe88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 31c | 3,350$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.93 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 71c | 2,623$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.14 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 2,269$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.79 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…b5b2backed Yes | 28c | 1,955$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,833$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 1,018$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.75 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…08d8backed Yes | 29c | 616.33$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 71c | 567.57$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 497$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 70c | 169.52$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 30c | 84.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 75c | 68.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 30c | 53.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 72c | 44.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03?this page
- Will CA Banfield vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.