CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9eddef175d8d8c02248dc172d882425319c95de160561caa1298bb20d17c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BIGof Ursa, BIG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Ursa | 33c | 740.25$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.01 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked BIG | 65c | 529.7$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.32 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed BIG | 73c | 470.14$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.84 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BIG | 71c | 459.45$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ursa | 32c | 399$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BIG | 66c | 363.86$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Ursa | 34c | 310.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 305 | 27.5%84 W · 221 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…0595backed BIG | 71c | 213.18$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 17c | 207.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…bf9abacked BIG | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Ursa | 35c | 198.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 18c | 155.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked BIG | 74c | 139.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ursa | 34c | 120.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ursa | 11c | 113.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 36c | 96.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ursa | 27c | 80.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Ursa | 27c | 79.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Ursa | 27c | 79.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Ursa | 27c | 79.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Ursa | 23c | 66.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 321 | 38.3%123 W · 198 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…80b5backed Ursa | 34c | 56.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed BIG | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed BIG | 77c | 42.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed BIG | 69c | 39.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed BIG | 68c | 31.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked BIG | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed BIG | 63c | 28.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked BIG | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed BIG | 68c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 PlayoffsBIG won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG - Map 1 WinnerBIG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)BIG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.