CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79c67af0198cd1e8e5825d8c7a6c7cb4a8e2ad2580a79a0a1b945d6d3de3765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BIGof Ursa, BIG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa17c…b2e6backed BIG | 59c | 2,365$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.43 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ursa | 35c | 1,839$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.44 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed BIG | 77c | 1,544$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.25 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Ursa | 28c | 1,524$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.09 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed BIG | 68c | 801.42$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.08 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 26c | 781.29$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa | 39c | 681.02$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed BIG | 70c | 609.6$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Ursa | 7c | 472.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 35c | 445.29$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 29c | 213.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked BIG | 51c | 197.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed BIG | 58c | 156.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 40c | 155.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ursa | 26c | 148.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 46c | 144.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed BIG | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…d507backed Ursa | 37c | 130.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…d958backed BIG | 57c | 117.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 316 | 62.7%198 W · 118 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed BIG | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ursa | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Ursa | 45c | 95.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ursa | 30c | 93.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked BIG | 56c | 91.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 37c | 84.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…5bbfbacked BIG | 66c | 72.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed BIG | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ursa | 21c | 69.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed BIG | 57c | 67.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Ursa | 42c | 66.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ursa | 36c | 62.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Ursa | 34c | 57.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ursa | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed BIG | 57c | 50.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked BIG | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked BIG | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Ursa | 41c | 39.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ursa | 35c | 36.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Ursa | 48c | 32.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Ursa | 43c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed BIG | 52c | 29.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked BIG | 72c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dd4bbacked BIG | 67c | 26.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed BIG | 57c | 21.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 PlayoffsBIG won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG - Map 2 WinnerBIG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)BIG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.