Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba8cc456701f20f16f1f707172f292905ab2d6b2aa2e3e27e6fc14c3ee7e6d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,863 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 2,432$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 1,624$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.54 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 33c | 1,103$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.9 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 57c | 1,083$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.69 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 55c | 872.49$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 247.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 66c | 243.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Under | 57c | 215.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 55c | 211.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 45c | 144.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 133.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 121.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 55c | 93.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 44c | 78.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 46c | 74.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 77c | 64.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 63c | 63.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 46c | 63.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 47c | 38.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 36c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…a505backed Over | 44c | 35.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a8…ecc4backed Under | 58c | 30.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Under | 57c | 27.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Under | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 23.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 17.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.