NHL · resolved market
SHL: Vaexjoe vs. Roegle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb018455e78054ef8595fb71b3788fe556e61acb11e01597958f206cfccbaee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roegleof Vaexjoe, Roegle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Roegle | 60c | 4,745$2,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.62 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Vaexjoe | 40c | 1,747$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.9 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…b4ebbacked Vaexjoe | 41c | 492.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…5657backed Vaexjoe | 40c | 450.31$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…a3bebacked Roegle | 62c | 405.07$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Vaexjoe | 38c | 404.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Vaexjoe | 39c | 386$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…c739backed Vaexjoe | 41c | 334.89$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Roegle | 78c | 270.86$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Vaexjoe | 41c | 229.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Vaexjoe | 40c | 216.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Vaexjoe | 40c | 212.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Vaexjoe | 41c | 188.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Roegle | 61c | 170.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Vaexjoe | 39c | 117.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Vaexjoe | 23c | 108.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…d091backed Vaexjoe | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Vaexjoe | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Vaexjoe | 28c | 92.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Vaexjoe | 21c | 89.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…fa40backed Vaexjoe | 41c | 87.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Vaexjoe | 40c | 73.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…54e5backed Vaexjoe | 40c | 53.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Vaexjoe | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Vaexjoe | 41c | 43.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roegle | 78c | 42.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Roegle | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Roegle | 60c | 38.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Vaexjoe | 41c | 38.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Vaexjoe | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Roegle | 73c | 29.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Vaexjoe | 40c | 27.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…5f86backed Roegle | 60c | 23.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Roegle | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Roegle | 63c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.