Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbca9f7805871bfdf493ba114680ab59b8549f726c0fb797fdd088993557d2ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 51c | 9,608$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.16 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Yes | 50c | 2,567$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 2,552$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.22 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 52c | 1,236$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.01 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 52c | 861.09$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.88 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 59c | 615.31$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.28 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…613dbacked Yes | 48c | 562.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 506.02$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.75 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 46c | 433.16$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.08 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 51c | 394$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 56c | 315$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 47c | 246.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.61 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 40c | 149.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 40c | 142$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 55c | 78.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 48c | 65.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Yes | 49c | 41.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa86…77dcbacked Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Yes | 46c | 29.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 41c | 24.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 50c | 23.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.