Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbcacb9b98b1a7642ea4a7e5eee5511f9f23a6b0a3aa6f492cfd41c0e93d9bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc02f…613fbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 418.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 29c | 300.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 30c | 251.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 19c | 185.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 19c | 167.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 138.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 128.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…be0cbacked Yes | 21c | 128.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 125.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 18c | 105.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 19c | 103.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 99.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 99.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 24c | 97.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed Yes | 22c | 91.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 13c | 84.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 36c | 82.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 70c | 80.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 75.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 73.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 70.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 63.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 27c | 56.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 56.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 55.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 45.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 24c | 41.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 30.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 24.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3e32backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.