CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Rivals: Vitality vs. Spirit
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe4297bc448784118eb7e5781c452ecf6f08c834d461df07324f40179c87e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Vitality | 64c | 4,093$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.39 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Vitality | 66c | 3,670$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.4 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Spirit | 36c | 3,173$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.67 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Spirit | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Spirit | 33c | 1,729$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.46 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Spirit | 36c | 1,717$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.12 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Spirit | 37c | 1,365$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Vitality | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…8dd0backed Spirit | 21c | 974.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Vitality | 63c | 682.85$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.65 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Vitality | 75c | 463.72$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Vitality | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Spirit | 17c | 282.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…55c4backed Spirit | 35c | 280.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Spirit | 38c | 271.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…2605backed Spirit | 19c | 259.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Spirit | 36c | 190.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Vitality | 78c | 158.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Spirit | 32c | 136.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Spirit | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Spirit | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Spirit | 35c | 85.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…fbcfbacked Spirit | 35c | 70.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a99…91a9backed Vitality | 65c | 68.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Spirit | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Spirit | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…7ec8backed Spirit | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Vitality | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked Vitality | 77c | 54.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Spirit | 36c | 47.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Spirit | 38c | 46.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Vitality | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…7f8abacked Spirit | 37c | 37.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…b977backed Vitality | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…3e5cbacked Vitality | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…186ebacked Vitality | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.